Brisbane is still the country's most profitable capital for home sellers despite the housing downturn, according to the latest figures from property data firm Cotality. Resales in Brisbane made a median $525,000 profit in the June quarter, with 99.8 per cent of sales making a gain — while at the other end of the spectrum, 20.8 per cent of Melbourne units sold at a loss, and about one in ten Sydney units went for less than their purchase price.
The quarter marks the end of a record run: resales nationally came off their 21-year high in March. Sellers across the country still made a median $371,000, with 95.4 per cent of the more than 94,000 resales analysed returning a profit — but Cotality's Pain and Gain report shows the gauge easing on every front: the profitable share down from 96.1 per cent the previous quarter, the median gain down from a record $378,000, the median loss up $1,000 to $45,000, and national dwelling values off 1.5 per cent over the three months to June.
"Profitability is still exceptionally high by historical standards," Cotality's head of research Gerard Burg said. "Most sellers are still benefiting from the significant value growth accumulated over the past five years, which is providing considerable protection against the early stages of the downturn. With home values falling across more markets, that buffer will become increasingly important in determining resale outcomes."
The unit market is where the pain concentrates. Houses returned a profit in 97.8 per cent of resales against 90.5 per cent for units, and the report has Melbourne and Sydney accounting for 83.3 per cent of unit losses by value. Mr Burg described a "real contrast" between the cities: Melbourne — where he said CBD unit values peaked back in 2017 — recorded the country's lowest share of profitable resales at 89 per cent. "It's very hard to get a profitable resale in that type of environment," he said. "In contrast, there's been a lot of demand for units in Brisbane."
On the ground, Brisbane agents are seeing the shift in the suburbs rather than the spreadsheets. "It is probably more of a normalising of the market because the last few years were anything but," Brisbane real estate agent Brett Andreassen said. "I think because this crazy growth happened over five years, everyone thought that was the normal — when it really wasn't." Sellers whose homes have sat on the market for months, he said, "have still got those previous figures in their heads — whereas a lot of the owners that are coming on the market now have adjusted their expectations to the current reality."
Brisbane's crown has company from the other post-COVID boomtowns: Adelaide and Perth were the next most profitable capitals, with median gains of $472,000 and $470,000, a legacy Mr Burg links to the relative affordability that pulled interstate migration north and west. Regional markets recorded a higher share of profitable sales than the capitals — 97.5 per cent against 94.1 — though metro sellers pocketed more, $415,000 against $324,500. Time in the market matters most: profitable house resales were typically held 9.3 years, loss-making ones just 4.4.
Mr Burg expects the slide in values to persist for some time, making profitable sales harder — Cotality has separately modelled what deeper falls would mean for each capital. "There is significant uncertainty around the short-term economic outlook, particularly the direction of interest rates and increasing pressure on household budgets," he said. "If housing values continue to fall, we would expect that to place further downward pressure on resale profitability over the coming quarters."