The number of recorded victims of crime in Queensland fell by around 4 per cent from 2024 to 2025 — the first yearly figures since the LNP's signature adult crime, adult time policy was legislated in late 2024, the ABC and Brisbane Times report. There were 277,411 victims recorded in 2025, more than 12,000 fewer than the 289,449 of the previous year.
The number matters politically. During campaigning as opposition leader, Premier David Crisafulli promised to resign if victim numbers were not below the 2023 figure of 289,657 by the end of his first term — a promise he walked back on the eve of the 2024 election day with a qualifier that it would be "per capita". On the raw count, the new figures are already below that benchmark.
'Green shoots', says the government
Attorney-General Deb Frecklington labelled the data "green shoots" in the government's crime crackdown. "Every victim is one victim too many," she said. "But as a government, we consider this as a message to keep going, to stay strong, to stand on the side of victims in Queensland. This really does give us a fire in our belly to keep going." Youth Justice Minister Laura Gerber claimed the soon-to-be-legislated breach bail, go to jail policy — under which children and adults who commit serious crimes while on bail face a mandatory 12 months behind bars — would drive further declines. "Queenslanders and victims of crime have told us, and we've heard them loud and clear," she said.
'It also declined under Labor'
The catch: the trend predates the laws. Associate Professor of Criminology at Bond University Terry Goldsworthy noted crime had largely been decreasing since 2024. "In terms of the government, yes, it has declined in their first 12 months, but it also declined in the last 10 months of the Labor government," he said. "It was happening before the adult crime, adult time laws were even put in place, so I'm confident that they've had little impact."
Opposition leader Steven Miles accused the government of "cherry picking" its data. The government has consistently championed an almost 10 per cent decrease — but that comparison uses Queensland police statistics across financial years 2023-24 to 2025-26, not the ABS calendar-year series. "Today we're back to calendar year with claims that it's down 4 per cent, in line with trends across the rest of the country and indeed previous years," Miles said. The government has been criticised before for changing metrics, and was forced to apologise last year after releasing incorrect figures.
What the numbers show
Within the ABS Recorded Crime — Victims release, the falls run across the board for serious crimes. Robbery and burglary dropped most steeply — down 13 and 12 per cent respectively, continuing a trend of decreases since 2023 — while assault, sexual assault and motor vehicle theft saw marginal falls. After a 32-year high in 2024, sexual assault victims decreased by two per cent to just over 9,000, and the victimisation rate fell from 167 to 162 victims per 100,000 people — the first decrease in that rate since 2019.
There were 90 homicide victims in 2025, down from 92, with just under a third related to domestic and family violence. The majority of homicide victims were male, most commonly aged between 35 and 54. On the reported drop in family-violence assaults, shadow women's minister Shannon Fentiman argued the statistics belied the true state of affairs: "Does any Queenslander seriously believe that domestic and family violence-related assaults are going down at a time when other assaults are up, at a time when domestic and family violence services have said they've never been busier, their wait lists have never been longer."
The adult crime, adult time laws mean children guilty of serious crimes — including murder, manslaughter and rape — are convicted as adults and face harsher sentences. Whether those laws or a longer national trend deserve the credit for the fall is now the argument that will run all the way to the next election; what both sides agree on is that this number, more than most, is the one Queensland's government has chosen to be judged by.