Nationals leader Matt Canavan has announced he will nominate for preselection in the Central Queensland seat of Capricornia, potentially setting up a high-profile showdown with One Nation, ABC News reported on Monday (2 November). The senator stressed he was nominating for preselection in the seat, which the LNP holds with a 5.8 per cent margin, and was not yet the candidate.

The seat will be vacated by retiring LNP member Michelle Landry, the outgoing Nationals chief whip, before the next election, expected in 2028. The ABC revealed Ms Landry's intention to retire on 22 October.

"We're a grassroots party, and whether I'm leader or whatever, I've got to go and present before the Capricornia branch of the LNP and seek their support," Senator Canavan said. "There's going to be a real fight on for the next election," he told ABC Radio Capricornia.

Putting It All on the Line

Senator Canavan released a statement on Monday morning saying he was "putting it all on the line", Brisbane Times reported. "I am nominating to be a candidate in the House of Reps to help change this country, unleash our nation's potential and bring down the cost of living for all Australian families," he said. "I realise there is no such thing as a safe seat any more. I may politically die in this endeavour, but I am not going to die wondering."

He told the ABC he needed to "step up" and take a risk by running for the House of Representatives during a "volatile" climate. "I'm happy to sacrifice potentially my own political future to do that," he said.

Senator Canavan, who lives in Yeppoon in the electorate, became leader of the Nationals in March this year, replacing David Littleproud. He currently holds the number two spot on the LNP Senate ticket, behind Liberal James McGrath. The ABC reported that a successful move to the lower house would shore up the likelihood of him becoming deputy prime minister in a Coalition government, and that Ms Landry approached him a few months ago to signal she was considering leaving politics.

One Nation and Labor in Capricornia

James Ashby, One Nation's party director and former chief of staff to Pauline Hanson, has not ruled out a run for the seat. Brisbane Times reported Ashby is based in Yeppoon and unsuccessfully ran for the state seat of Keppel, within the Capricornia boundary, in 2024. Senator Hanson has said she will not run in Capricornia. "It's still over a year out from the election, a year and a half, so I'm not making any decisions or giving any indication where I'm standing or where James Ashby, if James Ashby is going to stand," she told reporters, according to Guardian Australia.

Nationals deputy Bridget McKenzie told ABC Radio National Breakfast: "In this current political environment there is always a risk running for lower house seats. I think Matt's got a great proposition. He has delivered for that community alongside Michelle Landry for a long period of time." She urged One Nation to target Labor seats instead of Coalition-held electorates.

Brisbane Times reported that Ms Landry won the seat for the LNP at the last five elections. At the 2025 election she recorded a primary vote of 36.56 per cent, Labor's Emily Mawson 31.9 per cent and One Nation candidate Cheryl Kempton 15.5 per cent, with a two-party preferred result of 55.8 per cent to Labor's 43.41 per cent. Ms Mawson is yet to reveal her intention for the next election. Guardian Australia reported warnings from pollsters that Senator Canavan had a "zero per cent" chance of holding his Senate spot if One Nation maintained its surge in opinion polls.

Referendum on Net Zero

Senator Canavan said the next election would be a "referendum on net zero". "To get rid of net zero, we need to change the government. I want to make sure the next election is a true referendum on net zero and to do that we must win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives," he said in his statement. He also told the ABC: "We should be building nuclear power stations."

Named in recognition of the Tropic of Capricorn, the division covers 90,903 square kilometres, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, taking in the Isaac Regional Council and Livingstone Shire Council areas and parts of the Mackay, Rockhampton and Whitsunday regional councils.